Since 1929, government expenditures as a fraction of GDP (excluding the wartime spending of 1942-1945) have averaged 22.9% under both Democrat and Republican presidents. A worry is that if the president also has the support of both chambers, he will more easily pass legislation that increases the size and role of the federal government.
When Democrats have had control of both Houses and the Presidency (1932-1946, 1949-1950, 1961-1968, 1977-1980, 1993-1994), government expenditures as a fraction of GDP have averaged 23.5%. On the other hand, when Republicans have had control (1929-1931, 1953-1954, 2003-2006), spending as a fraction of GDP has averaged 21.1% (not statistically different). Divided government spending averages 23.9% of GDP. The graph below shows the size of government over time by party in control. The most prominent trend is the fall in the size of government since the late 1960s, which is evident under Democratic or Republican controlled government and divided government over this time period.
But the "power of the purse" resides in Congress, so does party matter in Congress?
When Democrats have had control of both Houses and the Presidency (1932-1946, 1949-1950, 1961-1968, 1977-1980, 1993-1994), government expenditures as a fraction of GDP have averaged 23.5%. On the other hand, when Republicans have had control (1929-1931, 1953-1954, 2003-2006), spending as a fraction of GDP has averaged 21.1% (not statistically different). Divided government spending averages 23.9% of GDP. The graph below shows the size of government over time by party in control. The most prominent trend is the fall in the size of government since the late 1960s, which is evident under Democratic or Republican controlled government and divided government over this time period.
But the "power of the purse" resides in Congress, so does party matter in Congress?
When democrats control the House, spending averages 23.9% of GDP. When
republicans control the House, it's 19.9% of GDP. See the graph below,
where the vertical line marks a majority of seats.
If Democrats control the Senate, spending averages 24.0% while spending averages 20.5% if Republicans control the senate.
From this evidence, we shouldn't expect huge increases in government spending because of the Democrats gaining control of the White House, but their large gains from the House and Senate races might give us pause. However, with the "legacy" of W, I'm not sure there's going to be much room for any additional spending.
If Democrats control the Senate, spending averages 24.0% while spending averages 20.5% if Republicans control the senate.
From this evidence, we shouldn't expect huge increases in government spending because of the Democrats gaining control of the White House, but their large gains from the House and Senate races might give us pause. However, with the "legacy" of W, I'm not sure there's going to be much room for any additional spending.
Thanks so much for that quantitative presentation of government spending. We were just debating at lunch yesterday which party had a bigger taste for government spending. It would be interesting to do those same analyses for deficits instead of government spending in order to incorporate the tax levels as well.