Market Timing

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I was pretty inactive here from mid December-early January.  During this time I was preparing for and attending the annual ASSA meetings, where many first-round interviews for economics PhDs are held.  

The following chart highlights my amazing ability to time the market.  The shaded areas represent NBER recessions, the first vertical red line is the date I graduated from college, the second is the date that I completed graduate school. 

jobmarkettiming.jpg

Very well timed, indeed!  To make things even better, note that I graduated in 2001 with a degree in a tech related field (MIS) and the financial markets continued to fall well after the recession was over.

It'd be interesting to see how the timing of one's entrance into the labor market (as measured by a point in the business cycle) impacts short and long run earnings.  Such a study has the potential to be insightful about the relative importance of experience as a signal of unobserved ability and experience as a way to accumulate human capital (e.g. getting and keeping a job when the labor market is very tight would be a better signal than doing so when labor demand is high).

If you'd like to hear Econ PhD candidates complain about their job market experiences, go here.

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