Recently in general economics Category

Google Data

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A new Google product I just became aware of- Google's public data explorer.  The number of datasets is still limited, but it's a great place to get a graphical depiction of data.  Here are minimum wages around Europe from 1999 to present:



It'd be neat to overlay this with the unemployment data...

Creative Destruction in Song

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The Man in Black channels Schumpeter:


It was one year ago today, back on October 14, 2008, when Jason Debacker and I started this blog. The first post on Econosseur.com was entitled, "Who is to blame for the crisis? Supply and demand approach". As of the writing of this post today, we have had 39,069 visitors. Jason and I wanted to thank all of you who have read our commentary, suggested ideas, or given constructive criticism in the comments. We love the forum.

Below are some of the highlights from the last year.
The Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded today to Elinor Ostrom and Oliver Williamson for their contributions to our understanding of the economics of institutions and their governance. It is noteworthy that Ostrom is the first woman to win the Nobel Prize in Economics. Women in economics should be bursting with gratitude (or envy) that Prof. Ostrom has broken the "separating hyperplane" ceiling that has existed for the profession's highest award until today.
You must read Greg Mankiw's post from today entitled, "First-year Grad Student Wins Nobel Prize in Economics!" And please do it in the following order. First read what Mankiw wrote about young Quintus Pfuffnick winning the Nobel Prize in Economics (not really). Then click on the link to the AP story about the Nobel Peace Prize award. Well played, Greg.

Here is a fun little video parody from Reason.tv. (Thanks to Jason for the link.)

Jason and I have always been fans of the great presentation of data and it is an important skill in communicating economics. Good examples that we have discussed on this blog include the Democrats health plan diagram, the averages from the American Time Use Dataset, and the breakdown of the Federal Reserve balance sheet. Jason sent me this link to one of the coolest blogs I have ever seen: InformationIsBeautiful.net. This is an entire blog dedicated to the artful and effective visual presentation of data. Below is a graphic from a post about disease case fatality rates if you wash your hands.

DiseaseFatalityHandwash.png
Finn Kydland was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2004 with Ed Prescott for their contributions to dynamic macroeconomics. In Kydland's Nobel lecture, he mentioned a truth that every professor of undergraduate macroeconomics has struggled with. "In the past 20 years, the gap between research and textbooks has grown wider and wider." The economic models outlined in undergraduate macroeconomic textbooks have almost no resemblance to the models used in current research, and the difference is the treatment of decisions across time--dynamics.
Tyler Cowen had a nice post in which he commented on an expertly written article--expertly written in every sense of the word--by Preston McAfee on what makes a good editor. I would expand this description to say that this article is extremely beneficial for junior economists on how to write good papers, and how to avoid writing really bad ones. I would recommend reading the whole article to any economist whose job depends on publishing articles in refereed journals, but here are a few of my favorite quotes and nuggets of wisdom from the paper.

...A personal agenda is a bias, and when it matters, will lead to bad decisions. As everyone has biases, this is of course relative; if your reaction is "but it isn't a bias, I'm just right" you have a strong personal agenda.
A good friend (Suzanne Bates) pointed me to this provocative and insightful article in The Washington Post from May 18, 2009 entitled "Poor? Pay Up." The article carefully documents many of the ways in which the poor pay more for the same goods and services that higher income households consume. The clever opening line is, "You have to be rich to be poor."
Menzie Chinn had a great post a week-and-a-half ago addressing the hot topic of the state of macroeconomics. This is something that Jason and I have discussed as well (post 1, post 2, post 3). Chinn has some great analysis of why macro is still very relevant and informative despite many perceived failures in the press. His two main points that jumped out at me were the following:

1) The first dimension on which you should rate any macroeconomic (or any economic) research is "How good is the question?" This is something that was always driven home to me by my macroeconomic professors at the University of Texas. Chinn emphasizes that methodology should follow from the question, not vice versa.

2) "...[T]he supposed failure of macroeconomics is more the failure of macroeconomics as described in the popular press, rather than of the discipline itself...."
Mark Showalter sent me a link to this article in Roll Call last week describing how Democrats blocked House Republicans from mailing the diagram below to their constituents. The diagram below was created by the staff of Rep. Kevin Brady (R-TX) and the Republican staff of the Joint Economic Committee. I thought that this diagram was a funny enough caricature to include on the economic jokes page. However, despite the expansive, complicated, government-private, heavily regulated nature of both current and proposed U.S. health care, ours is probably the most privatized system of all developed countries.

DemHealthPlan.png

A "balanced" diet

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Scott Adams, the author of the Dilbert cartoon, wrote an insightful piece back in 2007 entitled, "On the Other Hand", in which he extolled the skill of economists to deal with cognitive dissonance. In short, economists do not need absolute outcomes. We focus on the delicate balance between costs and benefits.

Roger Cohen had a wonderful op-ed in today's New York Times entitled, "The Meaning of Life," that beautifully illustrates this balance in questions of diet. He uses a prominent study of how diet affects monkeys to make the point that I have been making to my wife for a few years now. Sure I could give up hamburgers and soft drinks. I would probably live longer. But I wouldn't be as happy. The difficult economic problem is to find the exact balance between the costs and the benefits that maximizes two of the things I enjoy--food and longevity.
This most recent New Yorker has a very interesting piece in the "Talk of the Town" section about the influence of African pop music on the King of Pop.  In 1972, Manu Dibango released an album with the song "Soul Makossa".  A decade later, Michael Jackson released "Thriller" on which the second track, "Wanna Be Startin' Somethin'" borrows a few syllables from "Soul Makossa" (Dibango sings "Ma-mako, ma-ma-ssa, mako-makossa" while Jackson sings "Ma ma se, ma ma sa, ma ma coo sa").  In 2007, Rihanna released "Don't Stop the Music", which credits Jackson and closes with the same syllables as "Wanna Be Startin' Somethin'".  Dibango took Jackson and, more recently, Rihanna, to court for copyright infringement.  A settlement was reached with Jackson, but the Rihanna case is ongoing.

All this reminded me of one of my favorite Econ Talk episodes- where Roberts interviews Michele Boldrin.  A key point that Boldrin makes is that while our argument for copyrights is that if musicians are not given the monopoly rents from their copyrighted work, they will not produce- in practice we often give too much protection since the opportunity costs for these musicians is usually quite low.  Would Dibango have put "Soul Makossa" with the single he wrote for the Comeroon soccer team if he didn't know of the royalties he'd get from a artist who, ten years later, used a similar 10 syllables?
Anna Schwartz is the author of a book review that came out in this month's (June 2009) Journal of Economic Literature on a recent biography of the economist and Nobel Laureate, Milton Friedman. One of her criticisms of the new Friedman biography is that the author missed one of the most important aspects of Friedman's personality--his style as an economic debater. She says,

For example, Friedman's style as a debater reveals an aspect of his personality. He was always courteous to his opponents in a debate, never attacked ad hominem. He concentrated on weaknesses of the opponent's arguments and invariably emerged as the victor in the debate.

In addition to being a fallacious logical argument, ad hominem attacks are an indicator of the weakness of an argument. Ad hominem attacks reveal that the proponent either (1) does not understand the subject enough to make a sound argument, (2) is advocating a position that cannot be justified by logical reason, or (3) is simply using the debate as a platform to slander his opponent. Reasons (1) and (2) have relevance for judging the validity of the argument, but reason (3) is irrelevant.
With bankruptcy plans finally announced for GM today, I thought it would be nice to revisit a previous post. On December 20, 2008, I posted an article entitled, "Ford tough," in which I praised Ford's decision not to accept government bailout money. I said the following:

The proposed auto bailout has been one of the most discouraging pieces of government action since the beginning of our current financial crisis. Ford's decision to stick with the market is one of the silver linings in the ominous clouds of the global recession. Ford does, of course, run the risk of not beeing able to compete in the short-run with GM and Chrysler and their new influx of government cash. But that's not really where the competition is anyway. The real contest is to see which U.S. company will be able to compete with their Japanese counterparts. I think the market will look favorably on Ford's long-run positioning.

Just look at what has happened to the stock prices of Ford and GM since December 20, 2008. The market has spoken.

GMandFord09-05.png
I just saw that Econosseur.com is now on the official list of economics blogs on the American Economics Association's Resources for Economists (RFE) web site. But even better is that our economic jokes page is the first link on the AEAweb page entitled "Neat Stuff".

Donald Marron's blog

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The newest economics blog that I know of is an offering from Donald Marron. I worked for Donald back in the summer of 2002 on the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. The main project I worked on with him was a report entitled, "Understanding the Stock Option Debate," that advocated stock option valuations on corporate balance sheets. Donald has worked as an economist in the highest levels of academia, government, and the private sector. I think Donald has a great understanding of the turbulent confluence of politics and economics, and I look forward to his forthcoming posts and insights.
Given the news coverage of health care proposals, I'm posting a list of questions I have about health care and heath economics.   I'd love to hear your answers.

1) If we are worried about health care costs rising relative to GDP, why aren't we worried about iPod costs relative to GDP?  After all, these "costs" have been rising at double digit rates for several years.  Why, at that rate, they are soon to overtake our entire economy.

2) Is there any industry which you could not envision cutting the costs of?  Why don't we cut the cost of SUV's by 1.5% each year?  Why is Obama stopping with just health care?

3) Why doesn't my car insurance pay for oil changes or new brake pads?
Greg Mankiw posted a link to this study, entitled "The Undergraduate Origins of Ph.D. Economists," by John Siegfried and Wendy Stock at Vanderbilt University. Table 3 on page 25 ranks American Universities in order of which institutions were the undergraduate alma mater of the most Ph.D. economists who received their degrees between 1997 and 2003. Brigham Young University ranks 13th, right behind Yale, Princeton, MIT, Penn, and Maryland. This year we had students accepted to Yale, Princeton, Chicago, Wisconsin, Maryland, UT Austin, Duke, UCSD, UCLA, UCSB, and Washington University-St. Louis. In my biased opinion, they get a pretty good undergraduate economics training at BYU. But it is nice to have another independent appraisal.

Selection Bias

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I haven't been paying much attention to my Netflix queue lately and the result has been some discs I haven't been too too excited to watch.  This got me wondering why there weren't more good movies in my queue.  After all, I don't watch much in the theater, so there must be some good stuff out there I am missing.  But as I browse through the recommendations Netflix is giving me, I see a clear case of selection bias.  Netflix is recommending films for me, but they are based only on what I have gotten from Netflix before.  Those movies I really wanted to see, I shelled out $8 for and saw in the theater- so Netflix has no idea I saw these and can't base recommendations off of them.

This reminds me of Geithner's recent proposals to have more government oversight of financial firms.  Let's hope that any additional regulation won't suffer from the same problems as my Netflix queue.  That is, Geithner needs to do more than look at what caused this crisis- he needs to understand what will cause the next.  
That's the headline.  Goodbye private property rights.  As Long or Short Capital jokingly notes:
"Ever since the New Deal-era Supreme Court translated the Commerce Clause into English as 'we can do what we want and you can't stop us,' Congress has been able to take as much of your money as they want, at any time and for any reason. It's a testament to their monumental stupidity that it took them nearly 80 years to figure this out."
This cartoon appeared in the Wall Street Journal today. (Thanks Kerk.)

DismalScienceSnapOut.gif
The New York Times ran an editorial today entitled, "When Will the Recession Be Over?" that surveyed 11 experts about their forecasts of when the recession would end. This is the first mainstream compilation of forecasts that I have felt was realistic.
Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute, gave a fascinating talk today at Brigham Young University about the effects of charitable giving. He started out with a quote from John D. Rockefeller who seemed to think that charitable giving was the source of his financial success, rather than a function of it. In trying to disprove Rockefeller's hypothesis with data, Brooks explained that he found more and more evidence in support of it.
Given Greg's comment a couple weeks ago and the comments from my students before their first intermediate macro exam last week, I've had to explain why economics relies heavily on math a number of times recently.  I see two major reasons:
One of my former students sent me this CNN piece about Japanese corporations incentivizing fertility by making their employees go home early from work two days a week. I have a few comments and questions about this article that I'll put in writing below, and a lot more that I will leave to imagination.

Macro links

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I'm teaching intermediate macro this semester using Mankiw's intermediate text.  I try to start each day talking about the day's macroeconomic news as it relates to the subject we are talking about in class that day. 

In case anyone is interested, I post links to the new articles or blog entries here.  I'll be covering all chapters of the Mankiw text, 1-19, this semester.  To follow along, the syllabus is available here.

Last semester I taught a principles class using using an in-progress textbook by Russell Cooper and Andrew John.  While the students weren't crazy about a book that wasn't in print, I really liked how the material was presented.  Using a macro standard this semester (while a clearly written book), has only increased my appreciation for the question-driven motivation of the Cooper-John book (as opposed to the model-driven motivation of standard econ texts).
The December 2008 Journal of Economic Literature published the 105th annual list of doctoral dissertations in economics published between July 2007 and July 2008. This is really just a shameless plug by Rick and Jason for our two of favorite entries in this year's JEL list. The first is entitled, Three Essays on Openness, International Pricing, and Optimal Monetary Policy, and the second is entitled, Essays on Dynamic Political Economy.
After the decline of the core CPI of -0.1% for October 2008 (reported last month), I have been telling students and associates to watch out if we had another decline in the core CPI in November. Two consecutive declines in this more stable measure of consumer prices (it excludes the volatile food and energy components) would signal an increased likelihood that a destructive deflationary spell is upon us. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today that core inflation actually increased by 0.02%. This is a very small number that is practically zero. But at least it is positive. In keeping with the analogy of my last post, we have dodged the deflation bullet for the month of December (November CPI).
A colleague of mine, Joe Price, was a discussant last week at an interdisciplinary conference hosted by Princeton University called "The Social Costs of Pornography." The stated goal of this conference was to "assemble leading experts in the fields of psychiatry, psychology, neurophysiology, philosophy, sociology, law, and political theory to present a rigorously argued overview of the problem of pornography in our society and to make recommendations." They also had a number of scholars serve as discussants throughout the meeting in order to ensure "that the papers will be energetically critiqued in order to promote a fair and in-depth assessment of the issues in question." One of Joe's comments upon returning was that too little scientific discipline was (and has been historically) imposed upon arguments detailing the social costs of pornography. He has started an ambitious collaborative project in order to remedy some of these weaknesses.